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Current Affairs

L K Advani Could Be PM Post 2G Scam
By Sanjeev Nayyar, December 14 2010 [[email protected]]

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Would  the Supreme Court (SC) have let off the CEO of a consumer goods company for using  beef talo to produce soap on the basis that the Head of Production disobeyed the  CEO’s written instructions? The answer is a clear NO. So also why is the focus  primarily on V Raja and not on the CEO of India Inc PM Singh Kohli?

How  will the scam affect national politics? Here is some crystal ball glazing on  how things might shape out in the next twelve months.

Who  are the losers in this scam? One is PM Singh. Inspite of being personally  honest the public wants to know the reasons why he chose not to exercise  authority when the scam was being perpeutuated? Two, is the House of Tatas. The  Group always espoused high corporate values and commanded respect amongst the  aam aadmi. Post Nira Radia tapes the sheen has gone. It is not a question of whether  the Tatas were wronged or not but the extent of lobbying by Tata’s ace lobbyist  means the group can longer take the moral high ground.

One  of India’s biggest success stories in the last decade was Telecom. It is only  after Reliance entered the mobile space and the Arun Shourie introduced policy  framework that the mobile phone ceased to be an instrument of the elite. Prices  fell, market expanded such that vegetable vendors, taxi drivers and maids have  cell phones today. If the scam compels older operators to pay license fees with  retrospective effect it could hurt the Indian consumer.

The  2G scam has put Karunanidhi on the defensive in Tamil Nadu and could undo the  benefits of various pro poor programs implemented during the last five years. A  weakened DMK would mean more seats for the Congress. If they get the numbers  right we could see a Congress CM in Chennai sooner than expected, more so in  the post Karunanidhi era.

If  the SC ensures that those found guilty are convicted within the next one year  the rule of law would be established once again. Investors, both foreign and  domestic, would feel confident doing business in India. If the case goes on  endlessly like the 1993 Mumbai Blasts case, India’s image would take a severe  beating. We would then become a nation of outstanding politicians and lawyers  but an ineffective judiciary. Remember it was the present telecom Minister Mr.  Kapil Sibal who ably and successfully argued, in the House, against the  impeachment motion of former Supreme Court judge Mr. V Ramaswamy. Since  Independence, Ramaswamy was the only constitutional authority whose impeachment  was actively considered by Parliament.

With  scams taking place in quick succession, the NDA has got one life line after  another. As if the Commonwealth Games were not enough, the 2G scam followed.  They have caught the imagination of the common man unlike the Bofors scam that  related to purchase of defense equipment.

How  will the political situation shape out in the next 12 months? The NDA shall  stick to the demand for a JPC and keep the heat on the Government. In search  for TRP’s sections of the media shall also keep up the pressure. The Ambani  brothers fight saw a lot of corporate secrets go public, the same could happen  now. The fight could accentuate if Bharti’s Mittals and Reliance business  interest are affected. With Parliament non functional experts would ask, how will  the Budget be passed?

Eager  to avoid a constitutional crisis the SC might step in. It could request PM  Singh to take quick action against Raja & Co or agree to a JPC. The PM  dithers. The SC passes severe strictures against Singh who then resigns!

Congressmen  publicly shed tears for Singh but are actually happy. Privately they admit that  the cause of the present crisis was Singh’s not towing 10 Janpath line. He had  outlived his usefulness for Congress’s first family! Pranabda makes public his  candidature for Presidentship.

The  Congress has the numbers but no one is willing to get into the hot seat. Rahul  Baba is too inexperienced to become PM at such a critical moment. If he failed  his political career would be finished. Mismanagement of Hindu Muslim riots  over Ayodhya or a combined Chinese / Pakistan attack could force him to leave  the country never to return. The fiscal and current account deficits had  reached worrisome levels. Food inflation was running at 12%. At Rs 60/ a kg the  price of onions had people crying. At Rs 150/ a kg for tuar dal had sambar  lovers up in arms. There is a strong anti-Congress wave all around.

Sonia  Gandhi is unable to find a capable and trustworthy Congressman. Unwilling to  let go power, call elections and with a heavy heart, she walks into the house  of L K Advani with an unconditional Offer! Politics in India is the art of the  impossible. 

Advani  to head a Congress supported NDA government. In the interest of the nation the  Congress was willing to sacrifice power and support its arch rival, the  untouchable BJP. Congress says that Sonia sacrificed the PM’s position in 2004  and once again offered power to the BJP, the hallmark of a selfless and great leader!

Every  human being wants to see their dreams come true? Advani becomes India’s PM. The  bonhomie between the Congress and the BJP at the swearing in made people wonder  how they could be at logger heads only a few months ago. True to nature,  Advaniji and other nationalists stir the nation out of difficult times. India  returns to the path of growth, Indians begin smiling and spending once again.

Just  when things were looking good, Sonia Gandhi withdraws support to a government  headed by the communal BJP. Indira Gandhi did the same to Charan Singh in 1979  and Rajiv Gandhi to Chandrasekhar in 1990. She was only following family  tradition! Elections are called.

The  fifth generation of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, Priyanka Vadra and Rahul Gandhi, were  now ready to rule India!

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