• India must be aware and alert of co-operation between Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. It must tell the Saudis how India could help create and sustain MBD’s Vision 2030. Article includes India’s response to Turkey and Saudi Arabia.  

Part 1 covered Implications of the US Iran War and written on April 29, about two months after the war started. Now that the US Iran Peace Agreement (60 days) about to be signed wrote Winners and Losers in the US Iran War 2026. Since the U.S. Iran war did not seemed to end wrote China is the winner of the Ukraine and Iran Wars , Can India Iran have a Future and Impact of Crude Oil Imports on the Indian Economy

The Joint Defence Agreement between Sunni Muslim countries of Turkey (TU), Saudi Arabia (SA) and Pakistan (PA) was signed on 7/8/26 in the Holy City of Mecca. A Shia from India wrote, “Iran has the largest Shia population and is home to important Shia holy sites, especially the shrines in cities such as Mashhad, which contains the shrine of Imam Reza, the eighth Shia Imam.”

Shashi Tharoor wrote in the Indian Express, “By fusing Saudi capital, Turkish military technology, and Pakistani operational manpower into a unified framework of collective deterrence, the three signatories have created a valuable political and economic shield, without assuming the operational burdens of a true military alliance.”

India’s response should be an integrated one and country wise too. Read on. 

India’s response to Pakistan 

Should not change. Zero tolerance for terrorism and the only thing to talk in Jammu and Kashmir is for POJK/Gilgit and Baltistan becoming part of India.

The agreement might improve Pakistan’s financial position but the mindset would remain the same – India has to fail at any cost! 

Emboldened by the Mecca Agreement and Chinese/U.S. support Pakistan may step up terrorist attacks. India must respond appropriately. At the same time, it must focus on building National Comprehensive Power. If democratic India succeeds in building Bharat, Chinese people will want democracy too-Communist Party’s fear!   

Indians wish Pakistan broke up or financially collapsed. China and the U.S. will want Pakistan to limp and serve their needs. With the Mecca Agreement Pakistan might not be targeted by the Financial Action Task Force that sets rules to stop money laundering, terrorist financing etc, and get financial support too.

Iran might check the existence of the Defence Pact by attacking Saudi assets directly or indirectly through its allies. The response would be interesting.

China wants U.S. influence in the Middle East to reduce so will support any non-U.S. alliance. Pakistan is anyway a Chinese pawn to control India.

India provides Talent to the world that includes the Middle East and the U.S. whilst Pakistan provides military manpower. Common is manpower. Results are different.   

India’s response to Turkey

Turkey has strained relations with Israel, Cyprus, Armenia, and Greece. More Indians should know about the Cause of animosity between Turkey and Cyprus/Greece. Read Here

Turkey’s neighbours.

PM Modi visited Cyprus and Greece recently. India could build on that momentum by exporting Missiles  that upset the balance of power in the region. Let India Inc. know that business with Turkish companies is not welcome. Indians be advised that they visit Turkey at their own risk. No giving earthquake relief to Turkey like India did in 2023. India has good relations with Israel and Armenia.

Note Turkish invaders like Mahmud of Ghazni, Mahmud Ghori and Alauddin Khilji are disliked in India!

Since Turkey is a member of NATO and protected by it, only time will tell its reasons for signing the Mecca Agreement.

Turkey seeks to strike a balance between Russia and the U.S.

Red Sea is an alternate route to the Strait of Hormuz.

India could help Saudi Arabia (SA) successfully pursue its Vision 2030

According to SA’s Vision 2030 site the country is seeking to build a more diversified (reduce dependence on oil) and innovative economy. It wishes to set “benchmarks for innovation and development on the global stage” and has got investments in sectors like renewable energy, tourism and entertainment. Perhaps, inspired by UAE it seeks to build a thriving economy.

The National Gaming and eSports strategy, “aims to position Saudi Arabia as a global hub for gaming and esports, contributing to economic diversification, job creation, and enhanced quality of life.”

To fulfil this vision SA needs talent (skilled and un-skilled) and technology skills, all of which India can supply.

India should give Saudi Arabia a blueprint on how it can help in Vision 2030.

IPL matches in Saudi can be major driver in creating a sports culture and attracting tourists. Thus, this search states, “In late 2023, reports emerged that advisers to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had discussed a potential multibillion-dollar investment into the Indian Premier League (IPL). The proposal reportedly involved valuing the league at up to $30 billion and investing around $5 billion for a significant stake, though no formal.” Hear FP Video, TOI

I remember a 2024 media report where the government said that due to Lok Sabha Polls that year the government could not take any decision on matter. There is no change in status to date.

2024 IPL auction for 2025 season was held in Jeddah. India could arrange for a few IPL matches to be played in Saudi provided it builds a stadium with a 1 lakh seating capacity (contract given to Indian company).

If Saudi has to invest in IPL, the IPL business has to be spun off into a separate company. It must pay income-tax on its profits like franchises do and profit on sale of stake to Saudi. For matches held in Saudi, franchises and players will not have to pay any local taxes.

Long and short, India should position itself as a contributor to Saudi’s long-term prosperity and fulfilment of Vision 2030. 

This shall make India an important player in Saudi’s domestic economy. Why would it displease such a country by supporting a rogue state?

What are U.S. goals in the Middle East as of 12/8/26?

 The U.S. wants to get out of the ill-planned war with Iran, with a face-saving formula that also caps Iran’s nuclear capabilities. It supports Regional Allies sign joint-defence agreements and wishes some or all normalise ties with Israel. 

The U.S. debt GDP ratio is over 100 forcing it to reduce expenses, outsource security where possible. It needs not oil from the Middle East but Chips from Taiwan so its protection important.  

The U.S. goals are to control the Middle East through Allies, weaken Iran, reduce threats to Israel, weaken China’s hold in the region and continued invoicing of crude exports in U.S. Dollars. 

On the pretext of protecting Saudi and Turkey, the U.S. in order to get India to toe its line, may sell arms to Pakistan which will notwithstanding statements, be used against India.

Pakistan could be a U.S. conduit for supplying Nuclear Technology to the Saudis!!   

There are no permanent friends or enemies in geopolitics. National Interests is the only constant.  

To read all articles on Foreign Affairs

Also read

1. 1916 Sykes Picot Agreement that redrew West Asia’s boundaries

2. Mecca Pact is a hedge against a fickle U.S.

3. Saudi and Turkey – Rocky relations a Brief History

4. Saudi Pakistan Defence Agreement is a tool to ensure U.S. Dominance