Explained - US China SOYABEAN Trade

  • U.S. should find new markets/uses for soya to reduce dependence on China. Before imposing sanctions, the U.S. needs to think through impact because there exists a perception it is not being done. The U.S. needs to revive its manufacturing economy by becoming competitive. Ideas for India to explore helping U.S. soyabean farmers.

Ever since President Trump imposed tariffs on India we decided to explore various facets of the U.S. economy. So I wrote, Explained Why the U.S. IMPORTS Petroleum Products from India , Understanding U.S. Economic Data, US Needs Indian Pharma products and India needs US market and Look at the Trade Deficit numbers after removing APPLE Exports to USA

 

According to U.S.Importdata.com, “US food exports were worth $191 billion in 2024-25. The top US food exports include Soybeans ($24.58 billion), Corn ($13.92 billion), Beef ($10.45 billion), Nuts ($9.83 billion), and Pork ($8.63 billion). When combined with related industry agriculture is 5-6% of GDP.

 

Since China is buying Soya from Brazil and not the U.S. Soya in the news. Thanks to Google search and the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service site, found data. Read on for Tables and comments. To make it easier, presenting in a Q&A format.

 

1. Which U.S. states are the largest producers of Soyabean?

They are Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota located in the Midwest region of the U.S. The Governor of Iowa Kim R visited India recently for a trade & investment. A Search tells that, “Farmers in these regions often rotate soybeans with corn, a practice that benefits soil health and nutrient utilization, as soybeans are nitrogen-fixing legumes.”

 

The harvest season in Midwest ends by October and in Arakanas by November. October to January is considered peak season for U.S. soya.

 

2. Who are the Top 5 Producers of Soyabean in the world?

Table 1 In Marketing year 2024

Country

Million Metric Tons-Mkting Yr 24

% global output

Mkting Yr 23

1. Brazil

169

40

155

2. USA

119

28

113

3. Argentina

51

12

48

4. China

21

5

21

5. India

13

3

12

Source-USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.

 

Brazil overtook the U.S. as the world’s largest soyabean producer with a substantial lead in crop year 2021/22 (View Trends). India is a minor player. Read Soyabean Association India data on country-wise production from 2021-25

 

3. What is the value of U.S. Soyabeans exports by Value?

Table 2 Value of U.S. Soyabean exports

Year

Million Metric Tons@

Billions USD#

2024

NA

24.5

2023

46

27.7

2022

54

34.3

2021

59

27.4

2020

62

25.5

 

Source @Soyastats.com Year is Marketing Year # US Foreign Agricultural Site

 

4. Who were the largest buyers of U.S. Soyabean in 2024?

Table 3 Largest buyers of U.S. Soyabean

Country 2024

Value Billion $

China

12.6

European Union

2.4

Mexico

2.3

Indonesia

1.2

Egpyt

1.0

Source US Foreign Agricultural Site

 

Given that China is a huge buyer and Brazil is a serious competitor, should the U.S. government have been more careful while imposing sanctions on Brazil, considering China/Brazil are founder of BRICS.

 

Further, with Argentina and Chinese Presidents meeting and ties getting warmer, the U.S. should have expected China to buy soya from Argentina. 

 

5. Which countries are the largest importers of Soyabean?

Search states China, European Union, Argentina and Mexico. According to this World Bank link, the largest importers in 2022 were –

Table 4 Largest Importers of Soyabean

Country 2022

Value Billion $

Metric Tons

China

61

9108,1400

European Union

8.8

NA

Egypt, Arab Union

2.8

3714810

Mexico

2.6

NA

Japan

2.6

3503250

 

China is world’s largest buyer. Fall in U.S. export quantities means more supplies in the domestic market that might depress prices and reduce farmer profitability.Read Why does China import so much soyabean

 

6. Why is Soyabean consumed in China?

A search states, “Soybeans are a historically significant and versatile staple crop in China, valued for their high protein content, affordability, and ability to be transformed into a wide variety of foods like soy milk, tofu, and soy sauce. This culinary tradition is a cornerstone of Chinese cuisine, while the modern demand for soybeans is also driven by their use in animal feed to support a growing meat-eating population and their importance in the protein industry.” 

 

A large part of China’s soyabeans are used to produce soy meal, a feed component for poultry, pig and fish farming. Remember Chinese eat a lot these products. When I visited Hongkong years ago, saw Chinese eats lots of non-veg.  Soyabeans are also used to produce Edible Oil and Biofuels.

7. Over-dependence of the U.S. on the Chinese market  

According to Farmdocdaily.Ilinois , “In 2024, the United States shipments accounting for 51% of the nation’s total soybean exports that year. In 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China from January through August were 29% of total exports for the period. In June, July, and August, shipments to China were effectively zero.”

 

Like Indian exporters need to reduce dependence on the U.S. market, the U.S. government should have diversified exports, what with continuous cold war between the two strategic rivals.

 

Meanwhile as a means to hit back at the U.S., China increased imports from Brazil, a country that Trump administration imposed high tariffs on, form of punishment. Both hit back where it hurts the US. Read about that here

 

“It is important to note that the United States’ reduced role in global soybean markets reflects not only weaker trade ties with China but also rising domestic demand. Soybean crush capacity in the United States has been growing since 2020. This expansion is primarily fueled by the increasing demand for soybean oil, particularly from the renewable diesel sector. In the past five years, the renewable diesel boom has spurred new demand for soybean oil as a feedstock in the production of biofuels.” Source Farmdocdaily But we cannot take away from the fact that production quantities are falling, Brazil is racing ahead.

 

In India there is focus on storage esp. for wheat and rice. If China does not buy U.S. soyabean post-harvest does the U.S. have enough storage capacity?

 

8. Why is so much of soya bean grown in Brazil?

A search states, “due to its extensive land availability, long growing seasons allowing for multiple harvests, a tropical climate suitable for soybeans, significant investments in research and technology, supportive government policies, and global demand for soybean-based animal feed.” Read Reuters report

 

9. Can India import Soya made Bio-Diesel from the U.S.?

If the U.S. has the capacity to produce bio-diesel in large quantities, it is something the government can consider because India has limited local manufacturing capacity. A search states, “The total U.S. biodiesel production capacity is around 2 billion gallons.”

 

Since U.S. uses Genetically Modified seeds imports of soyaben shall not be acceptable but for biodiesel should be ok.

 

10. What is the % of Bean Kernel in the soyabean?

App 80% is kernel. A search states, “Soybeans are crushed to yield about 20% oil and 80% soybean meal. The meal is a valuable co-product used as livestock feed.”

 

11. Can India help with regular Soyabean Imports from the U.S.?

An Indian refinery, government owned or private say Reliance Industries sets a dedicated plant to import pre-determined quantities of Soya bean from the U.S. and Brazil to make biodiesel for export and sale in domestic market.

 

Two issues arise. One, is it financially viable given diesel prices. Two, is there adequate demand for livestock feed. What impact would this stock of feed have on market prices in India and thereupon on farmers? Does this idea make business sense? 

 

India must try to help the U.S. in a mutually beneficial way.

 

LearningAny country that allows its manufacturing economy to fall, shall have problems sooner than later. Germany, China and Japan are where they are today because of having strong manufacturing companies. This is not to undermine contribution of services/technology firms and tourism.

 

12. Where is soyabean grown in India?

The biggest states are Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.  A Search states, “Soybean is popular in India due to its high protein and oil content, fulfilling domestic demands for edible oil and animal feed, and providing nutritional security through essential amino acids. Additionally, its role as a leguminous crop that fixes atmospheric nitrogen benefits soil fertility, reducing the need for synthetic fertilizers in the farming system.” Read Imp of Soyabean in India

 

Read Soyabean Association of India Table on State-wise production

 

USA needs to find new markets without holding a gun on importer country’s head. 

 

Humility and Talking Less pays in most walks of life.

 

Also read

1. China seems to be shutting down imports of U.S. Soyabean – “For the first time in two decades, China bought no soybeans from the United States for two consecutive months and, more importantly, it also has no orders in for the coming peak season i.e. October to January.

 

2. China buys Soya from Argentina – Argentina scrapped export taxes (temporary). China placed orders for 10 cargoes of Argentina soya.  

 

3. American Soyabean Association

4. US Dept of Agriculture – Quick Stats

5. How China won the Soyabean war against the U.S.

6. Why Brazil emerged as a global leader in soyabean production

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