• Why would U.S. support the Saudi Pakistan Defence Agreement and how it Benefits? How will China and Israel react to this agreement? What should India do?

In the world of geopolitics there is so much happening now, for e.g. Saudi Pakistan Defence Agreement (SPDA) that I am grateful to the Divine Consciousness for letting my body live through this period.

Anything to do with Pakistan gets amplified by Indian Media be it playing a cricket match in the 2025 Asia Cup or the SPDA. Like optics at the Putin, Modi, Xi meet at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in September 2025, the Sharif MBD agreement signing optics were meant to convey multiple messages.

Within days came the U.S. decision to revoke the 2018 waiver and now sanction all entities involved in the Chabahar port project – an Iran India joint project that allows India to bypass Pakistan and provide land connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asian countries, for the purposes of trade. The move benefits Pakistan. 

Whose mind is at work and which country is the Karta Dharta of these moves?

U.S.A. Based on the present situation, crystal ball glazing on their plan.

1. U.S. has identified three key adversaries that could jeopardise its position as the world’s only superpower and its GDP. They are Russia, Iran and China. One of the keys to supremacy is access to the Indian market. 

2. U.S. cannot take on these three countries at the same time SO -

3. It wishes to weaken Russia by putting pressure on India to stop buying oil and arms from Russia – read as buy from U.S. instead. Now pressure on Europe too. 

4. It has outsourced security of the Sunni Middle East to Pakistan just like it wants Europe to pay for its security vs. Russia. Aim is to reduce debt and fiscal deficit.    

5. It wants unhindered access of U.S. Inc. to the Indian market. With a 140 crore population demand is expected to surge. 

Amazon should not be an online market place but be allowed to buy and sell like Reliance Jio does. No restrictions on Big Technology companies like Meta etc.

6. If India buys Arms and Oil in large quantities from the U.S. and supports Big Tech plans it will sustain three key pillars of the U.S. economy and instruments of geopolitical control.

7. By supplying arms to Pakistan, albeit to protect Saudi, USA will try to control India – give us access to your markets-listen to us if u want us to reign in Pakistan.

8. The fourth pillar is the U.S. Church. Sooner than later can expect the U.S. to threaten sanctions on countries that limit the role of U.S. NGO’s (read Conversion).

9. If it succeeds in managing the Middle East and Russia, focus will shift to China later. There could be a short-term thaw. 

10. President’s sweet words for Modi, Xi and Putin are so these leaders lower their guard and think Trump has changed. Nothing like that. 

11. U.S. is able to fund its borrowings because Dollar is the world’s reserve currency. If that changes U.S. loses its biggest leverage and threat of sanctions.

Why the Saudi Pakistan Agreement is a winner for USA and Pakistan?

U.S. needs a country to do its dirty work in the Indian Subcontinent and the Middle East. It does not want to get directly involved in fights between Middle Eastern countries-Sunni Shia fights.

Having realized the limitations of Chinese support, Pakistan knows the importance of the U.S. in financially sustaining it and continuing its ideological fight with India. So Pakistan, a U.S. ally for decades notwithstanding support to perpetuators of 9/11/, fits the bill.  

While the details of the SPDA are not clear, the agreement provides a nuclear umbrella to Sunni Saudi against its arch enemy Shia Iran and formalises the security arrangement between Saudi and Pakistan. The Israeli attack on Qatar has nothing to do with this.

Thus, U.S. has provided security indirectly, making Saudis happy.

The Pakis are happy because they get paid by Saudi for these services. This helps balance of payments/economy and generates employment.

Further, on the pretext of Pakistan providing security to Saudi, the U.S. can sell arms to Pakistan (like it supplied F16s to fight terrorism to fight the Afghan War)   ignoring India’s legitimate concerns that these arms would be used against India. 

As is widely rumoured, some U.S. nuclear assets in Pakistan. These were made ineffective during Operation Sindoor. So, the U.S. feels the need to diversify asset locations – what better place than Saudi Arabia. 

A side effect of this will be the continuing dominance of the Army in Pakistan, a policy started by the British in undivided Punjab. Read Why Democracy Failed in Pakistan  

In a way, India is back to the 1980s adjusted for 2025.

We have seen U.S. support to countries that export terrorism and are dictatorships. Human rights/Democracy are policy tools to ensure U.S. dominance.

India provides Information Technology to the world whilst Pakistan seeks to provide military personnel to the world. In a way, that sums up the difference between the two countries.

How the Chinese will react to the Saudi Pakistan Defence Agreement?  

As long as China has access to Gwadar Port, their loans are repaid and Pakis buy Chinese arms they might not bother.

Pakistan might help the Chinese by convincing the U.S. to keep moderate tariffs on Chinese imports so that sustains both the economies.

What about Israel?

The SPDA agreement is not targeted at Israel because the latter has not attacked Saudi in decades. Read The Arab Israeli War of 1948

Israel’s enemy is Hamas and indirectly Iran. The U.S. will let Israel clear Gaza of Hamas and come out with a grand plan that also supports U.S. Inc.

How Israel Pakistan relations with play out is not clear now?

Will Israel seek India’s help to target Pakistan’s’ Nuclear Assets? Unlikely for now, because that might mean targeting U.S. assets. 

What about India Saudi relations?

We forget that till recently Saudi was a big exporter of Wahhabism with Hindu India being a target.

Things have changed though under MBD. PM Modi has gone out of his way to improve India’s relations with Saudi. MBD realizes that he needs Indians to help modernize Saudi (manpower, construction companies and as tourists). Saudi also wanted to acquire a controlling stake in IPL, the cricket business, so matches could be held in Saudi thereby attracting lakhs of cricket lovers globally. 

Conversely, India needs Saudi capital and support in ideological battle with Pakistan.

Having said the above, Saudi needs Pakistan support to protect the Monarchy and in its fight vs. Shia Iran. India tends to forget that ISLAM acts a great unifying agent esp. amongst Sunni nations. Indians must read about Pan-Islamism during the 1920s Khilafat Movement.

Saudi charges Asian countries (not only India) an Asia Premium on crude sales. It could be about $ 3 says this MINT report. However, industry sources say, “Saudi fixes a common price every month based on its estimated market position.  It is sometimes relatively higher for Asia as with US or EU the crude is to travel from ME and complete with that local market.” Wish the Government of India came clean what is the premium charged by Saudi.

Saudi objectives now are protecting of monarchy, creating a city like Dubai, reducing dependence on oil exports and protection from Iran and its non-state actors like the Houthis.

How will the Saudi Pakistan defence agreement pan out?

Early to say. Keep in mind that the Saudi Army has not fought a war for decades. The Paki Army has its hands full fighting insurgency in Baluchistan, dealing with Pashtuns on both sides of the border and Afghanistan. To this add, protection of Saudi.

Will the Pakis protect Saudi Oil Assets against attacks from non-state actors, only time can tell? Read Houthi attack on Jeddah Oil Depot And 2019 NYT report “Drone attacks claimed by Yemen's Houthi rebels struck two key oil installations inside Saudi Arabia on Saturday.”      

What should India do?

India must focus on becoming an economic and military power. It should not take part in Middle East or Europe-Russia Wars. Read Ideas for India to realize potential And Cooperate, Compete and Atmanirbharta should be India’s mantras

For India this means more Defence Spending – counter China, Pak, Saudi and Turkey. Our economy need to grow faster. REFORMS – States and Centre. 

While India should do crystal ball glazing on how things pan out with the U.S. and Middle East, we should not overreact.

Indians must stop bragging visa viz. Pakistan and benchmark its nation with the best in the world.

I hope USA tightens the rules of HB1 Visa such that thousands of professionals return to India. They can contribute to Make in India and Atmanirbhartha.

India should be guided by this verse from Chapter 2 of the Bhagavad Gita –

Ch 2 Verse 14, “The contact of senses with objects, O son of Kunti, which cause heat and cold, pleasure and pain, have a beginning and an end; they are impermanent; endure them bravely, O descendant of Bharata.” (Gurudev Swami Chinamayanand ji Commentary) 

Neither good nor bad times are permanent. When times are good I express gratitude, share my happiness with the less fortunate and enjoy while it lasts. When times are bad I try to sail through with the belief that nothing is permanent. Simultaneously, with a cool mind I reflect on earlier actions to know if I did something wrong and make amends.

Difficult times/adversity are part of life. Believe this too shall pass away.

Before winning the 2011 World Cup in Mumbai a TV reporter asked M S Dhoni of the scene outside his Ranchi house if India won the Cup. He said there would be big celebrations yet in the same tone told viewers (without any anguish) of the protests outside his house when India played badly a few years ago. That is a beautiful example of accepting the opposites in life.

Always be content with the situation you are in and look for opportunities in even a difficult situation. This requires positive attitude and belief in oneself.

PM Modi and Dr Jaishankar must read Dr Ambedkar’s masterpiece ‘Thoughts on Pakistan’ now.

Two popular phrases in India today, Strategic Autonomy and National Interests, are alien to the U.S.

Savdhan and Best Wishes Bharat

Also read

1. USA needs Indian Pharma Generics to keep health costs low

2. India must introduce concept of Adjusted Trade Deficit with the U.S.

3. How should India deal with the U.S. post tariffs and 50 % tariffs

4. Why India imports Petroleum Products from India

5. Implicatons of US sanctions on Chabhar Port